100% of Canadian pork exports depend on the U.S.

 

By Craig Hulshof, Perth Pork Producers

In 2024, 21.2 million hogs were slaughtered in federally and provincially inspected establishments in Canada. With a population of over 41 million people, and a few other animals on the menu, this is obviously more pork than our country can eat. This does not even take into consideration the pigs that are raised in Canada, but slaughtered in the U.S. 6.9 million hogs were exported to the U.S. in 2025.

In 2024, 62.4% of pork production was exported. Where does is all go?

Here are the February 2026 Year-to-date pork exports:
Japan -  31.7 %
U.S. -  34.9 %
China - 4.6 %
South Korea - 7 %
Mexico - 10.1 %

Looking at this table, you can see that almost 35 percent of Canadian Pork exports go to the U.S. If our exports to Mexico go via the U.S., that means that 45 percent of Canadian pork exports go to or through our large neighbour to the south. 

So nearly half of our pork exports are directly dependent on having a good working relationship with the U.S. The rest of our pork exports are put in a container and shipped across the ocean. An ocean whose security is enforced by the U.S.

Before World War II, the oceans were a free-for-all; there was trade between nations, inter-colonial naval rivalries, and piracy. Sending merchandise across the ocean meant that it was at risk of being seized by a rival navy, pirates, or sunk by a hurricane. International trade was a risky business, only undertaken by those with nothing to lose, or those who could afford to lose their cargo. 

It is no surprise that insurance was invented to spread the risk of international shipping. At the end of World War II, when the U.S. was the only country who had a substantial navy left and Europe needed to be rebuilt, the U.S. struck a deal that would change international shipping into what we know today.

Peter Zeihan wrote an insightful book in 2022 about globalization and the role of the U.S. It is titled, The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.

He writes: “The United States agreed to rebuild the European states on the condition that trade would no longer be isolated within their imperial systems.... there would no longer be empires at all. What was granted in exchange was truly transformational. The Americans would ensure that all countries on all continents would enjoy full access to the global ocean.

 

What had once been a highly contested strategic environment transformed into a single, global, safe, functionally internal waterway filled and supplied by diesel powered behemoths....No privateering. No Piracy. No imperial confiscations. Global transport shifted from the jealous province of the empires to the unfettered circulatory system of the global economy.” 

He goes on to argue that the American-led order of globalized trade is now collapsing, and it will be forcing nations to localize manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. It predicts a world of shrinking, aging populations, supply chain disruptions, and greater instability, marking a shift from cheap, fast global trade to pricier and more localized trade.

As Donald Trump reshapes the global order to suit his “America First” ideology, it is hard to imagine the U.S. continuing to play the role of guarantor of the safety of global shipping. Going forward, Canada might need to re-invest in its navy if it wants to be able to protect it's agriculture exports. 

This might make even quota look cheap. ◊